Tools · FI Simulator

Model the path from wealth accumulation to financial freedom.

A two-phase simulator for compounding, inflation, pension offsets and the probability of reaching FI under a realistic range of portfolio outcomes.

Accumulation setup

Portfolio base, savings engine and asset assumptions.

You can model non-flat accumulation here: kids, mortgage ending, income boosts or any temporary drag on saving capacity.

Blended return 6.0%Portfolio vol 10.1%

Accumulation inputs

Define starting wealth, recurring savings and any other recurring income that effectively funds the accumulation phase.

Temporary cash-flow adjustments

This is the flexible way to model scenarios like children of age X, school costs, a mortgage ending or any expense drop from a future age onward. Use negative values for costs and positive values for extra saving capacity.

Asset allocation and risk

One asset per line. Each row shows exactly which performance proxy it maps to, so assumptions stay transparent.

Weighted nominal return: 6.0%

Estimated portfolio vol: 10.1%

Allocation total: 100.0%

Retirement and gap

Define the destination.

The engine estimates how much capital is needed before pension age and how much is still needed after pension income starts.

Withdrawal rule

Interpretation

The deterministic line tells you what happens if returns arrive smoothly. The percentile corridor shows what a plausible range of outcomes looks like once volatility is introduced.

For children and similar scenarios, temporary adjustments are usually the right level of complexity: they alter savings power without forcing a full household budget model.

FI age

60

25 years from now

Retirement goal probability

17%

Probability of being funded by retirement age 52

Success to age 90

68%

Probability the portfolio survives the full retirement path

Risk of ruin by 90

32%

Starts retirement with a shortfall of $167,180

Retirement-date real wealth range

Simulated purchasing-power outcomes at the selected retirement age 52.

P10
$434,357
P25
$511,182
P50
$625,231
P75
$746,701
P90
$925,687

Risk of ruin by age

Starting at retirement age 52, this shows the cumulative probability of depleting the portfolio by each later age.

0%13%25%38%50%525762677277828790

FI age percentiles

Simpler read of likely FI timing across the 10th to 90th percentiles.

P10
50
P20
52
P30
53
P40
54
P50
55
P60
56
P70
58
P80
61
P90
65

Key outputs

Annual retirement spending$28,800
Public pension income$13,200
Capital needed without pension$720,000
Capital needed at retirement$822,000
Expected real return3.4%
Annual contribution at start$30,000
Real wealth at retirement$654,820

What changed

Asset allocation is now explicit and extensible: one asset per line, with visible performance mapping so assumptions stay tied to the Atlas data model.

The percentile and probability sections are intentionally simpler now: quick charts and compact tables instead of card-heavy blocks.

Retirement trigger

52

Move retirement on the chart and the engine switches from accumulation to withdrawals from that age onward.

Probability-adjusted wealth path

Focused short-to-medium horizon view, capped to keep the FI window legible.

Deterministic realMedian simulated10th-90th percentile40th-60th percentileFI threshold
$0$218,600$437,200$655,800$874,400$1,093,000$1,311,6003540455055606570Retirement 52